Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Thoughts From The Commissioner


In season 21, the Augusta Moose won a staggering 118 games. While the NL also featured teams with 111 and 106 wins, the 118 victories posted by the Moose had me wondering where they ranked among the all-time great clubs in the history of the Sandlot. Looking back, I found some teams that really dominated their leagues. The Stars have been the NY Yankees of the Sandlot, posting as many as 123 wins. The Sioux Falls Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots (now known as the Chicago Doublemints) won 124 games in season 11. But as we know, not all seasons are equal – the collective talent of a league can mask just how good a team was. But how do you measure it? I did a few things, but first I picked out a few teams from some great owners from the AL and NL over different eras of the Sandlot:
TEAM
SEASON
W
PCT
SIOUX FALLS ROBOTS
11
124
0.765
LA STARS
6
123
0.759
SA ENTOURAGE
15
120
0.741
LA STARS
7
118
0.728
AUGUSTA MOOSE
21
118
0.728
CINCINNATI REDS
7
117
0.722
CHARLESTON JITTERBUGS
17
116
0.716

There have been some other great teams, but it’s pretty tough to crack this list when the bottom club has 116 wins. But is wins the ultimate measurement in determining a team’s greatness? Well, the good old 1927 Yankees had 110 wins, and they’re generally considered the greatest single season team of all time (apologies to the ’39 and ’98 Yanks, and the ’76 Reds for that matter). It’s all about dominance, and while wins indeed show that, so do the runs scored and runs allowed. That’s where we get the expected winning percentage, which is Bill James’ Pythagorean Method. Let’s look at the above clubs once again, but now sorted by expected win percentage, based on their runs scored and allowed:
TEAM
SEASON
W
PCT
RS
RA
EXP







LA STARS
6
123
0.759
1059
573
0.766
SIOUX FALLS ROBOTS
11
124
0.765
1138
640
0.758
LA STARS
7
118
0.728
1081
635
0.739
CINCINNATI REDS
7
117
0.722
957
531
0.731
CHARLESTON JITTERBUGS
17
116
0.716
931
556
0.725
AUGUSTA MOOSE
21
118
0.728
876
549
0.704
SA ENTOURAGE
15
120
0.741
911
586
0.697

That’s a little different order, with the biggest drop being the Season 15 Entourage, who seemed to win a little more than their fair share of victories that year. But expected percentage is still measuring the individual team, and not considering the strength of the league they played in. What if we looked at the bottom 4 teams in their league and posted their average winning percentage? Let’s see:

TEAM
SEASON
W
PCT
EXP
BOT 4






CHARLESTON JITTERBUGS
17
116
0.716
0.725
0.401
AUGUSTA MOOSE
21
118
0.728
0.704
0.394
SA ENTOURAGE
15
120
0.741
0.697
0.383
LA STARS
7
118
0.728
0.739
0.364
CINCINNATI REDS
7
117
0.722
0.731
0.364
LA STARS
6
123
0.759
0.766
0.327
SIOUX FALLS ROBOTS
11
124
0.765
0.758
0.326

That makes sense. The Sandlot has come a long way in achieving some parity as the seasons have rolled on. But just looking at the bottom 4 doesn’t tell the whole picture. That’s where Standard Deviation comes in. Rob Neyer used it in his book Baseball Dynasties, where he and Eddie Epstein examined the greatest teams of all time. To put it shortly, standard deviation measures how tight a league was talent wise. The lower the overall deviation from the league average, the tougher it is to dominate as there aren’t as many crap clubs to beat up on. So let’s look at the list based on their league’s SD:
TEAM
SEASON
W
PCT
EXP
BOT 4
LG SD







CHARLESTON JITTERBUGS
17
116
0.716
0.725
0.401
108.1
AUGUSTA MOOSE
21
118
0.728
0.704
0.394
108.7
SA ENTOURAGE
15
120
0.741
0.697
0.383
122.6
LA STARS
7
118
0.728
0.739
0.364
139.1
CINCINNATI REDS
7
117
0.722
0.731
0.364
139.1
SIOUX FALLS ROBOTS
11
124
0.765
0.758
0.326
166.7
LA STARS
6
123
0.759
0.766
0.327
186.2

Really not much difference, but it’s precise. Now that we’ve ordered the leagues based on competitiveness, let’s factor back in the individual club’s dominance. Neyer did this with a Standard Deviation score. Simply put, it takes the club’s run differential and divides it by the league standard deviation. So here we are:
TEAM
SEASON
W
PCT
EXP
BOT 4
LG SD
SD SCORE








LA STARS
7
118
0.728
0.739
0.364
139.1
3.55
CHARLESTON JITTERBUGS
17
116
0.716
0.725
0.401
108.1
3.49
LA STARS
6
123
0.759
0.766
0.327
186.2
3.17
AUGUSTA MOOSE
21
118
0.728
0.704
0.394
108.7
3.08
SIOUX FALLS ROBOTS
11
124
0.765
0.758
0.326
166.7
3.07
CINCINNATI REDS
7
117
0.722
0.731
0.364
139.1
2.65
SA ENTOURAGE
15
120
0.741
0.697
0.383
122.6
2.42

It’s not too surprising to see a Stars team on top. Season 7 was pretty decent talent wise, and he just crushed the field. To give some perspective, the 1927 Yankees had a SD score of 3.69, so that Stars team is in some pretty good company. Those Jits of Season 17 were pretty special as well, as it was a very tough league to dominate. Sort of strange to see the Reds with a weak SD score especially since the Stars don’t seem that much better that season, but they just didn’t perform well offensively to stand out here among the all time greats. And getting back to the Moose, in spite of getting knocked out in the NLDS, they should look back on their season 21 with pride as it’s one of the greatest regular season clubs ever put together in the Sandlot.